THE bat and ball has been put in the shed, it’s time for the footy.
With the NAB Challenge well underway, we are less than three weeks out from the first bounce between Richmond and Carlton on Thursday, March 24, at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
And it’s the usual suspects leading the major betting markets, with the Hawthorn Hawks $4.25 favourites with CrownBet.com.au to win an unprecedented fourth premiership in a row.
And they have some strong backing from former Sydney Swans premiership player Tadhg Kennelly, who says if they manage to finish in the top four in 2016, they will win their fourth straight.
“If they make the top four – watch out! That’s all they’ve got to do,” Kennelly said.
The Irishman says the only factor against the Hawks is the age of their players facing the new rotation rules, which has been reduced from a cap of 120 a game to 90 this season.
“When you’re 32, 33, 34-years of age, you want as much rest as you can get,” he said.
“But you can’t go against these guys – the 22 that played in the Grand Final there was 170-odd games they averaged, which is enormous experience.
“The problem is they’ve got the oldest list in the competition.
“Can these four or five players (aged) over 30 continue to play week in, week out?
“Can they do it in a Grand Final? There’s no doubt about it because it’s one game, but can their bodies actually hold up?”
Captain Sam Mitchell, a $14 sixth favourite for the Brownlow Medal with sportsbet.com.au, is the club’s oldest player at 33, but he has not put a used by date on his stellar career.
“I don’t probably know how long I can play for – if I feel the way I feel now, then I can keep playing,” the four-time premiership player told SEN.
“Clarko sat us down, a few of us older guys, and said `let’s make sure you’re all sorted for your post-(AFL) careers’.
“Most of us older guys, we know we’re one bad injury away from it being the end.
“I’m going to keep playing for as long as I can – as long as I can contribute in a strong way.
“We’ve got a very selfless attitude around our footy club, so I realise if I start getting slower or hurting the team in any way, my time will be up.
“All of our older guys are like that.
“We’re not going to be hanging on for life or death just so we can get a couple of extra games out if it’s holding back the team.”
The Hawks have been hit by news Jarryd Roughead will miss the first half of the season after suffering a knee injury, requiring surgery, but the likes of Jack Gunston, Luke Breust, Cyril Rioli and Paul Puopolo should be able to pick up the slack up forward.
The Hawks conquered the West Coast in last year’s grand final, but the Eagles are still second favourite at $5.50 to go one better in 2016. The Fremantle Dockers, who the Hawks beat in the preliminary final, are $8 third favourites, while the vastly improved Geelong are the only other team under double figures, with the signing of Patrick Dangerfield inspiring punters to back them into $9.
2016 AFL Premiership market
Hawthorn Hawks ($4)
West Coast Eagles ($5.50)
Geelong Cats ($8)
Fremantle Dockers ($10)
Sydney Swans ($12)
Port Adelaide Power ($13)
Richmond Tigers ($14)
Collingwood ($17)
North Melbourne Kangaroos ($17)
Western Bulldogs ($19)
Adelaide Crows ($34)
Greater Western Sydney Giants ($51)
Gold Coast Suns ($101)
Brisbane Lions ($201)
St Kilda Saints ($201)
Melbourne Demons ($251)
Carlton Blues ($501)
Essendon Bombers ($501)
Odds provided by WilliamHill.com.au
Ablett breathing down Fyfe’s neck for Brownlow Medal favouritism
Fremantle Dockers superstar Nat Fyfe is still sportsbet.com.au’s favourite to win back to back Brownlow Medals at $6, but the little master Gary Ablett Junior is right behind him at $7. The Gold Coast Suns champ only managed six games last year, but punters expect him to go very close if he can stay fit in 2016. Another winner, West Coast’s Matthew Priddis is at $8, while new Geelong man Patrick Dangerfield is $10.
2016 AFL Brownlow Medal market:
Nathan Fyfe ($6)
Gary Ablett ($7)
Matthew Priddis ($8)
Patrick Dangerfield ($10)
Daniel Hannebery ($12)
Sam Mitchell ($14)
Tom Rockliff ($18)
Joel Selwood ($18)
Trent Cotchin ($21)
Josh P. Kennedy ($21)
Scott Pendlebury ($26)
Robbie Gray ($26)
Dustin Martin ($31)
Andrew Gaff ($31)
Marcus Bontempelli ($34)
Luke Parker ($34)
Lance Franklin ($34)
Travis Boak ($34)
Dylan Shiel ($34)
Lachie Neale ($41)
Jordan Lewis ($41)
Dane Swan ($41)
Callan Ward ($41)
Dayne Beams ($41)
Tom Mitchell ($41)
Tom Liberatore ($41)
*Others quoted
Odds provided by Sportsbet.com.au
It’s Kennedy’s Coleman to lose
Punters think last year’s Coleman Medal winner Josh Kennedy, at $4 with CrownBet.com.au, is the man to beat again and there’s good reason why. Still at the peak of his powers, Kennedy is expected to benefit from another sterling season from his West Coast team mates, who provide him with silver service, game in, game out. It is hoped Sydney star Lance Franklin has been able to deal with his mental health demons and he is a $5.50 second favourite. One to watch at odds is Melbourne Demons youngster Jesse Hogan who, at $26, could provide a shock.
2016 AFL Coleman Medal market:
Josh Kennedy (West Coast Eagles) ($4)
Lance Franklin ($5.50)
Tom Hawkins ($8)
Jack Riewoldt ($10)
Jack Gunston ($11)
Taylor Walker ($12)
Jeremy Cameron ($13)
Kurt Tippett ($21)
Jake Stringer ($21)
Charlie Dixon ($21)
Luke Breust ($21)
Eddie Betts ($23)
Jesse Hogan ($26)
Thomas Lynch (Gold Coast Suns) ($26)
Chad Wingard ($26)
Travis Cloke ($34)
Jay Schultz ($34)
Josh Bruce ($41)
Sam Day ($41)
*Others quoted
Odds provided by CrownBet.com.au
Petracca, Mills head Rising Star betting
Melbourne’s Christian Petracca has had rotten luck with injury, but he is still a joint $7 favourite with sportsbet.com.au to win the AFL Rising Star award. He is joined by Sydney Swans academy prospect Callum Mills on the line, with Carlton’s number one draft pick Jacob Weitering the only other player in single figures at $9. One to watch is Essendon’s Darcy Parish at odds. With all the Bombers’ suspensions, the blond midfielder is going to get all the footy he can handle in 2016.
2016 AFL Rising Star Markets:
Callum Mills (Syd) ($7)
Christian Petracca (Melb) ($7)
Jacob Weitering (Carl) ($9)
Darcy Parish (Ess) ($10)
Jayden Laverde (Ess) ($12)
Darcy Moore (Coll) ($12)
Toby McLean (WB) ($14)
Clayton Oliver (Melb) ($15)
Trent Dumont (NM) ($21)
Kyle Langford (Ess) ($21)
Josh Schache (Bris) ($21)
Wayne Milera (Adel) ($21)
Aaron Francis (Ess) ($21)
Jake Kolodjashnij (Geel) ($21)
Orazio Fantasia (Ess) ($21)
Caleb Daniel (WB) ($23)
Daniel Howe (Haw) ($26)
Jack Steele (GWS) ($26)
Rhys Mathieson (Bris) ($26)
Matthew Kennedy (GWS) ($26)
Jade Gresham (STK) ($31)
Jacob Hopper (GWS) ($34)
Lachie Weller (Freo) ($34)
Darcy Tucker (Frem) ($34)
Charlie Curnow (Carl) ($34)
Ben Keays (Bris) ($34)
Callum Ah Chee (GC) ($34)
Jarrod Garlett (GC) ($41)
Daniel McKenzie (Stk) ($41)
Luke Partington (WC) ($41)
Nathan Freeman (Stk) ($41)
Karl Amon (Port) ($41)
Corey Ellis (Rich) ($41)
Jonathon Marsh (Coll) ($41)
Lukas Webb (WB) ($41)
Harry McKay (Carl) ($41)
Others quoted
Odds provided by Sportsbet.com.au
